Fact or Fiction: How an Alleged Promise to Gorbachev About NATO Expansion Fuels Myths and Misconceptions
Putin is known for taking liberties with history. You have probably heard him say that NATO should not have expanded. According to Russia, U.S Secretary of State James Baker allegedly promised Gorbachev in 1990 that this would not happen. This promise was supposedly made when the Soviet Union agreed to the reunification of Germany in 1990. Yet, by 2024, several countries east of Germany had become NATO members. Russian propagandists use this to claim that the West betrayed Russia. But is that really true? Did NATO actually make such a promise, or is this Russian fake history? And what was the context in which Baker is said to have made these statements? In this article, we delve into the historical background of this ‘promise.’
James Baker
Almost every time I post something on Twitter about Russia’s imperialist behaviour, it doesn’t take long before I receive a photo of the ‘famous promise.’ And it always comes from some anonymous Twitter user, as if they have a secret club to remind me of it. Apparently, it’s something that really preoccupies people.
The biggest problem is actually that many Russians are convinced that this promise was truly made. Take, for instance, the Speaker of the Duma from the 1990s, Alexei Pushkov. He even claimed in 1997 that not only James Baker but also Chancellor Helmut Kohl had made clear commitments. Well, if Russia was so sure about it, why didn’t they ever get that ‘promise’ in black and white?
Contradictory
The reason for this is that there was a lot of doubt in Moscow itself about Baker’s promise. Not because Baker hadn’t made a promise, but because Western leaders all came out with different statements. The future Russian Foreign Minister (1996-1999) Yevgeniy Primakov said the following about it in his 2000 memoirs: ‘The problem we saw was that within the NATO alliance, different guarantees, promises, and statements were made.’
From Paris and London, for example, very different messages were heard. British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher said she saw no reason for NATO to expand eastward. And French President Mitterrand stated that NATO’s nuclear and military capabilities would not enter East German territory. But did Baker go a step further by completely ruling out a potential NATO expansion to the East? No wonder there was doubt in Moscow. It was hard for them to draft a treaty when no one knew exactly what should be in it.
The Reunification
How did this statement come about? The German Democratic Republic (GDR) was on the verge of collapse in 1990. Both Chancellor Helmut Kohl, U.S. President George H.W. Bush, and the President of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, understood that the reunification of Germany was a fait accompli. The only question was: how should this process be managed properly? What you need to understand is that, at the time, the leaders saw no reason to assume that the Soviet Union would also cease to exist.
Nuclear-Free Germany
But before any negotiations could take place between Germany, the United States, and the Soviet Union, Gorbachev kept a particular demand on the table for a long time. According to Gorbachev, not only must a reunified Germany leave NATO, but Germany also should not possess any nuclear weapons and must become entirely nuclear-free. Quite a demand. Although it was said that Gorbachev had softened his stance somewhat, it mainly highlights the geopolitical context within which Baker had to operate.
Baker to Moscow
On February 9, 1990, Gorbachev and Baker discussed various matters, such as Afghanistan and nuclear arms control, but mostly the reunification of Germany. Several expressions of goodwill were made towards each other during this meeting. Additionally, certain scenarios were discussed. For instance, Baker raised the question of what Gorbachev preferred: a reunified Germany in or out of NATO. After all, a reunified Germany outside NATO could determine its own security doctrine and seek allies accordingly. Baker emphasized that a Germany outside NATO would not necessarily become a pacifist country. Gorbachev’s Foreign Minister and later President of Georgia, Shevardnadze, was strongly opposed to an autonomous security organization led by Germany.
Hypothetical Setting
This immediately shows the hypothetical setting of the conversation. Even Gorbachev saw plenty of obstacles within this scenario. According to Gorbachev, a reunified Germany could reclaim the 1938 borders, including Austria and Bohemia (Czechia). James Baker then said he could imagine that NATO would not expand eastward if a reunified Germany became part of NATO.
Taking On a Life of Its Own
The statement was primarily made as a declaration of intent to avoid a confrontation with the Warsaw Pact. NATO troops in, for example, neutral Austria or Finland could have led to problems. Baker made his statement in the context of a reunified Germany joining NATO (including no NATO troops in the former GDR), not as a promise.
Future Vision
In other words, this conversation was about the future of Germany and Europe. There was even speculation about the possible end of NATO. Baker’s words, or what some would like to see as his “promise,” were mainly meant to reassure the Soviet Union that there were no ambitions for expansion, however the main concern was about the deployment of troops to eastern Germany.
This was, of course, entirely logical, given that Poland and Czechoslovakia were still members of the Warsaw Pact. Where was NATO supposed to expand to? Austria? At that time, the expectation was that after German reunification, the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union could continue to exist.
Promise?
Russia confidently claims that Baker’s remark was a firm promise that NATO would never expand. Of course, it wasn’t. Various scenarios and future expectations were discussed, and Baker’s statement about NATO was one of them, just like Gorbachev’s wish for a nuclear-free Germany. But the problem is that Russia has since created a myth — that the West allegedly made a promise and then broke it. Unfortunately, this myth is widely circulated on social media.
Bush Sr. Was President, Not Baker
What often remains underemphasized is that it wasn’t Baker but President Bush Sr. who had the final say. Moreover, when Bush heard about what Baker had supposedly said, he responded with the legendary words: “We can’t make such a precedent.” Bush Sr. immediately called German Chancellor Kohl, informing him that there was no such promise of non-expansion by NATO. Even Gorbachev later denied that there had been any such promise. The intention was, after all, to prevent tensions with the Warsaw Pact.
In short, there’s a lot of debate, and this so-called promise has taken on a life of its own. At most, you could say that Baker might have misspoken and gone too far, only to be immediately corrected. But I wouldn’t even go that far. In the context of the conversation, Baker and Gorbachev discussed all kinds of future ideas that were far from concrete. Baker’s “promise” was just one of them, just like Gorbachev’s fear of a renewed German imperialism. Ultimately, it wasn’t reason enough for the Soviet Union to formally document such an important commitment. Today, this “promise” mainly serves as a justification for Moscow’s anti-Western rhetoric.
About the author
Welcome, I am Hidde Bouwmeester, historian, international relations expert, fact-checker, speaker, and specialist in the history of Eastern European countries. I write articles and create analyses to promote depth, offer new perspectives, and combat disinformation. You can support me here, but my site is in Dutch, so you can also support my work via this link with a donation.